Picture of the playoffs Bills: Distribution of the Buffalo Deployment Scenarios in 2022 NFL

The Bills (10-6) make the AFC playoffs for the third consecutive season and for the fourth time in five years until the 2021 NFL season ends. Whether Buffalo goes there again as the AFC East winner or returns to the wild card state depends on Sunday’s results.

Beginning in week 18, the Bills are currently number one in Seeds and Division 4. Look here for what needs to happen to at least keep the Billy in their current position and repeat themselves in the East:

WEEK 18 TIPS: Against proliferation Straight up

How can Bills win AFC East?

Buffalo has three ways to avoid returning the Patriots title, also 10-6 and the current AFC No. 5:

1. The bills win

The Bills are huge home favorites against the Jets in week 18. Buffalo won in New York 45:17 in week 10. The Bills wouldn’t even have to worry about number 2 if they did what was expected.

2. Patriots lose

In the unlikely event that the Jets produce Jaguar-like shocks against the Bills, Bills fans will also become Dolphins fans for one day. New England is almost a landing favorite in Miami, but she also lost to this team 17-16 in week 1. So there is still some good chance of winning the division without winning.

3. Bills tie and Patriots tie

Simply put, if the Bills matched or the Patriots did better, they would win the AFC East. Buffalo’s current lead is that he has a divisional balance of 4-1 against New England 3-2.

Can Bills still get number one in the AFC?

This answer is no. Let’s say the Titans No. 1 (11-5), Chiefs No. 2 (11-5) and No. 3 Bengals (10-6) all lose before the Bills, while the Bills win. This would secure the Titans, Chiefs and Bills a draw 11-6, but the tiebreak falls on the Titans who defeated both teams. Let’s say it’s a four-time draw with a Bengals victory. The Bengals would win a tiebreak over all three teams with an excellent 9-3 conference record.

The Bills have a chance of No. 2 if they can be undecided by the Chiefs at 11-6, while the Titans improve at 12-5 and the Bengals fall to 10-7. The Bills have a tiebreak over the Chiefs by beating them in Week 5. The Bills will not have a one-on-one tiebreak over either the Titans (losing lead) or the Bengals (lower conference record).

Getting to No. 3 is more sensible. The Bills can win it by winning the Jets plus a loss from Joe Burrow resting the Bengals in the Browns. There’s not much difference between No. 4 and No. 3, however, as if betting held on a wild card game, it would still mean only one home game before heading to the division round.

On the other hand, the Bills may fail to number 7 if they cannot win a division over the Patriots. If they lose to the Jets, then winning the Patriots, Colts (Jaguars) and Chargers or Raiders (in the same game) would reduce the Bills by three places, making them the last AFC item with a wild card. Buffalo is down 6-6 in the conference game, while Indianapolis and Las Vegas already have seven AFC wins in week 18. Los Angeles would have seven wins over Las Vegas.

There is a big difference between at least one home playoff game as a division winner and a chance to zero as the last AFC playoff team.

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