How Canada Can Qualify for the Qatar World Cup: An Explanation of Scenarios for CanMNT in 2022

Canada has qualified for only one World Cup in men’s history, but that may change before the World Cup in 2022 in Qatar.

Les Rouges lead the final round of qualifying for the CONCACAF World Championship with eight games played and there is a real possibility that Canada could qualify for its first World Championship since 1986. Nevertheless, a lot of work needs to be done to secure one of the three direct berths. group of four teams in dispute.

The United States is only one point back in second place, with both sides looming at the end of the month. Mexico and Panama are also just two points away, which means things can change quickly, especially with three matches over seven days at the end of January.

MORE: How long has Alphonso Davies been out of Canada?

The upcoming Matchday 9 will be absolutely critical. Given that all four best teams are two points apart and all four will face the four teams at the end, it is quite possible that one bad result may change the qualifying picture.

CONCACAF World Cup qualifiers

Below is the current ranking in the World Cup 2022 qualifiers from the CONCACAF region.

The first three teams will automatically qualify for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, while the team that finishes fourth will play the intercontinental playoffs against the winner from the Oceana region. The last four teams are eliminated.

Earth PTS GP W L D GF GA GD
Canada 16 8 4 0 4 13 5 +8
United States 15 8 4 1 3 12 5 +7
Mexico 14 8 4 2 2 11 7 +4
Panama 14 8 4 2 2 11 9 +2
Costa Rica 9 8 2 3 3 6 7 -1
Jamaica 7 8 1 3 4 6 10 -4
El Salvador 6 8 1 4 3 4 10 -6
Honduras 3 8 0 5 3 5 15 -10

Schedule and results of the World Cup qualifiers of Canada

Below is a complete list of Canada’s past results and upcoming matches in an effort to qualify for the 2022 World Cup.

date Wrestle time (ET) TV / Stream
September 2, 2021 Canada 1, Honduras 1 Highlighting
September 5, 2021 United States 1, Canada 1 Highlighting
September 8, 2021 Canada 3, El Salvador 0 Highlighting
October 7, 2021 Mexico 1, Canada 1 Highlighting
October 10, 2021 Jamaica 0, Canada 0 Highlighting
October 13, 2021 Canada 4, Panama 1 Highlighting
November 12, 2021 Canada 1, Costa Rica 0 Highlighting
November 16, 2021 Canada 2, Mexico 1 Highlighting
January 27, 2022 Honduras Canada 8:05 PM ET
January 30, 2022 Canada Vs. United States 3:05 PM ET
February 2, 2022 El Salvador Canada 9:00 PM ET
March 24, 2022 Costa Rica Canada TBD
March 27, 2022 Canada Vs. Jamaica TBD
March 30, 2022 Panama vs. Canada TBD

How many points to qualify for the World Cup?

If we use past regional World Cup qualifying cycles for historical comparisons, we must use PPG, because in the final round of the CONCACAF, only 10 matches have been played in previous cycles (compared to 14 on the calendar before Qatar 2022).

Although the number of matches was different, the top three places still qualified directly for each world championship listed below (points per match of each qualifying team are marked in bold). And since the 2006 World Cup, the team from fourth place has advanced to the playoffs against a nation from another region.

Qualifying 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1998 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6
2002 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.5
2006 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.2
2010 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.6
2014 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5
2018 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.6
2022 * 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.4

Projection of Canada Qualification Results

So what really needs to happen to make Canada comfortable between 1.8 and 1.9 points per game it needs to qualify without sweating? Or, if fans want to dream big, how can they make it toward the 2.0 PPG and win first place?

MORE: Which teams qualified for the 2022 World Cup?

We focused on projecting the results for the last six matches, using a less favorable set of results to find the minimum needed for a comfortable qualification. Canada is currently undefeated in the first place, but it has only two home matches left in the final six (vs. the USA and Jamaica) and four roadtrips to Central America await them.

A less favorable result set includes a loss and three draws in the last six games. Considering a possible home loss to the United States, plus draws in Panama, Costa Rica and Honduras, the final total of 25 points (and about 1.8 points per game) should be enough to qualify.

However, these results leave little room for error, as a slip in any of the matches would complicate matters. For example, a draw against Jamaica or El Salvador instead of winning would leave Canada in a very vulnerable position (1.6 PPG), especially if the other teams around them continued to win. It is clear that the outcome (perhaps a win?) Against the United States at home would allay these fears.

Canada’s strong start has given it some room to move, and CanMNT supporters will hope the team avoids a scenario in which it needs a result in the last game in Panama to secure a place in Qatar.

Wrestle date Opponent / Result PPG
9 Thursday, January 27, 2022 Honduras 0, Canada 0 (Draw) 1.9
10 Sunday, January 30, 2022 Canada 0, United States 1 (Loss) 1.7
11 Wednesday, February 2, 2022 El Salvador 0, Canada 2 (Win) 1.8
12 Thursday, March 24, 2022 Costa Rica 1, Canada 1 (Draw) 1.8
13 Sunday, March 27, 2022 Canada 1, Jamaica 0 (Win) 1.8
14 Wednesday, March 30, 2022 Panama 2, Canada 2 (Draw) 1.8

How Canada can qualify for the World Cup

There are six matches left in the qualifying cycle and the four best teams in the range of two points, there is still a lot of work and minimal error.

The clear four best teams were determined, with a relatively large gap between the fourth and fifth. Only three places are guaranteed for qualification; The country, which finishes fourth, will be left to play an intercontinental playoffs in a single elimination against Oceania’s representative, who will probably be New Zealand.

Canada is undefeated in eight games, with four wins and four draws on the Maple Leafs, and the ability to secure results on the road has been crucial. They collected draws on the way against the United States, Mexico and Jamaica. Add them to the 4W-0L-1D home record, including the famous 2: 1 home victory over Mexico, and the points came in piles.

MORE: How the Intercontinental Playoff World Cup works

According to the schedule, four of the last six matches will take place, so Canada will need to move the road warrior’s mentality forward. His two remaining home games against the United States and Jamaica will be critical.

Canadian fans will hope that the results of the upcoming three-match set, which will begin in late January – including the home against the US – will allow them to manage their own destiny heading to the last international window.

Tiebreaky order CONCACAF

There is always the possibility that the CONCACAF rankings will be extremely tight and that Canada will be a point tie with one or more of the other seven countries in the qualifying order. Tybreaks would come into play.

Here are the team rankings for points as well:

  1. Goal difference in all matches in the group
  2. Most goals scored in all group matches
  3. Most points gained from group matches between the teams concerned
  4. Goal difference compared to group matches between the teams concerned
  5. Most goals scored in group matches between the teams concerned
  6. Goals scored outside (if two teams are undecided)
  7. Discipline points (based on yellow / red cards)
  8. FIFA draw

The World Championships in Qatar will take place from November 21 to December 18, 2022.

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