Covid’s day-to-day cases in the UK fell below 100,000 for the first time in weeks as the infections fell for the ninth day in a row – but SAGE modelers are already warning of a “wave of departure” this summer.
Another 99,652 Britons have tested positive for the virus in the past 24 hours, according to a government panel, down 44 percent from last week.
Covid cases are now declining in all regions of England and in all four home countries, another sign that the Omicron wave is in decline.
Daily hospitalizations also remained at the same level with 2,423 new admissions on January 10, the last date with data, which was less than one percent from the previous week.
Sources say ministers intend to lift Covid’s passports and the WFH’s extended guidelines in England when Plan B restrictions are revised at the end of the month, with promising figures making the restrictions “hard to justify.”
Daily deaths from covid – a lagging indicator – have been creeping up for several weeks. Another 270 were registered today, which represents a 17 percent weekly increase.
But rising immunity and a naturally milder Omicron variant mean that there are now five times fewer deaths compared to the second wave last January.
Despite encouraging statistics, official modeling warned that Covid cases and hospitalizations could be revived this summer.
In a document submitted to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group (SAGE) last week, the team at Warwick University expected up to 10,000 daily admissions in the absolute worst case scenario.
Modelers admit that they cannot “confidently” predict the summer wave, but under all predicted circumstances, there is an “output” wave due to increased mixing and weakening immunity to vaccines. “
They add: ‘The exact timing and magnitude of this escape wave is highly dependent on both the behavior of the population and the extent of the current wave and cannot be predicted with certainty.’
Data from the UK Health Security Agency showed that the number of covid cases fell last week in 87 per cent of England, 129 out of 149 local authorities. For comparison, in the previous seven-day period (left) cases decreased in only 15 urban areas
Government figures show that in England, daily infections have fallen nationwide week by week over the past seven days.
Infections have only grown in the Northeast, but the latest government figures show that they now mirror the rest of the country.
Fascinating maps show the virus is burning at the national level, with cases reaching about 87 percent of local authorities in the past week.
The Northeast has become an Omicron hotspot in recent weeks after the outbreak shifted north, and is home to seven of the 10 local authorities with the largest outbreaks.
One in 40 people (2.6 percent) living in the region tested positive in the last week, more than at any other point in the pandemic.
England is now preparing to ease restrictions that have been imposed in the fight against Omicron, according to reports.
A record 3.7 million people were infected with Covid on any day last week in England – but cases have slowed nationwide, according to a surveillance study by the national standard for national statistics.
Areas in the North West, North East and Yorkshire were hit hardest last week by the new variant as they began to burn in London and the South.
Percentage of people who carried Covid in the UK home countries by the week of 6 January
NORTHEAST: Pictured above is the coverage of Covid in the northeast, indicating that its cases have begun to peak
NORTHEAST: The above shows the number of patients admitted to Covid Hospital each day. The region is now at about the same level as last winter
NORTHEAST: The above shows the number of patients with Covid in hospital beds in the region. The first signs that it may be a plateau at a lower level than the previous winter are emerging
NORTHEAST: And above is the number of patients with Covid on beds with a mechanical ventilator. This did not increase in the sign that Omicron is milder than its predecessors
The health minister reportedly told deputies yesterday that vaccination passports could be lifted by the end of this month and the ministers are considering ending work from home. Both are due to be reviewed on January 26.
Self-isolation will be reduced to five days for vaccinated people on a positive test on Monday, with Sajid Javid saying the UK would be “the freest in Europe”.
Covid had a record 4.3 Million Britons last week, according to ONS
Last week, a record 4.3 million Britons were estimated to be carrying Covid.
The latest oversight from the Bureau of National Statistics shows that areas in the North West, North East and Yorkshire have been hit hardest by this new option since it began to burn in London and the South.
More than 10 percent of people tested positive within seven days to January 6 in the worst affected areas, including Bury, Wirral, West Lancashire, Burnley, Rochdale and Solihull.
The interactive map was published as part of a weekly report that found that infections had reached new highs in all four home countries.
It is estimated that one in 15 people was infected on any day last week in England, while in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland this proportion was one in 20.
Although infections have continued to rise in the last week, the 14 percent increase is the smallest increase since Omicron became dominant in early December.
The slowdown in infections is consistent with a growing body of evidence showing that the Omicron wave is receding.
More recent data from the government panel show that the number of cases is now declining in all countries in the United Kingdom and in every region of England. Daily income also appears to have stagnated across the UK.
UK Health Security Researchers will calculate the rate of infection in regions of England using the number of positive swabs recorded in the previous seven days.
His latest figures, up to January 8, show that the number of cases is now declining in all regions day by day, and in five of them – the East Midlands, the East of England, London, the North West and the South East – are declining for a week. -at week.
The Northeast (2,572.4) is still Covid’s hotspot in the country with the highest number of cases per 100,000 people, but is now starting to go down.
The second highest rate of infection was in the North West (2,132.6), followed by Yorkshire and the Humber (1,977.5) and the West Midlands (1,785.6).
At the other end of the scale were the south-west (1,270.2), the south-east (1,374.1) and the east of England (1,460.7). London had the sixth highest infection rate (1,526.5).
As a sign that the Northeast decline is real and not due to a change in testing its PCR positivity – the proportion of swabs that detect the virus – has also begun to decline.
Infection statistics refer to the period before the testing rules change, so Brits who test positive with lateral flow no longer need to undergo confirmatory PCR. But the numbers have dropped before.
There were also fewer tests on Covid during the holiday season, which slightly skewed the official figures.
But the rate of swabs has now risen to the level we saw before Christmas, giving some of the country’s leading experts confidence that the drop in cases is real.
The number of hospitalizations in the Northeast continues to decline, reaching 390 admissions per day, approaching the peak of last winter, which was 430.
However, the number of patients with Covid in hospitals has risen to 3,000 in recent days, about four-fifths of the previous high, while numbers on beds with a mechanical ventilator have barely risen.
The UK Health Agency’s weekly estimate was between 1.1 and 1.5 today, down slightly. Last week, health chiefs said it was at least 1.2.
But in London, the reproduction rate could be as high as 0.7, the team concluded.
If the number is less than one, it means that the infections are shrinking. The R number reflects the average number of people to whom each infected patient passes the virus.
However, the R rate is a lagging indicator and does not reflect the current situation. Instead, it paints a clearer picture of how fast the virus spread three weeks ago.
Ministers once placed the R rate at the heart of their Covid battle plan. But now it is less crucial, because experts care more about hospitalization and mortality, given the massively successful introduction of vaccination in the country.
At a meeting with Conservative MPs yesterday, Mr Javid welcomed “encouraging signals” but warned that hospitals remained under “significant pressure”, according to The Times.
Currently, people in England need to show proof of vaccination or negative lateral flow to enter major events and nightclubs.
A Whitehall source told the paper: “There has always been a very high policy threshold and it seems increasingly likely that this threshold will not be met in a few weeks. The way cases are going will be difficult to justify a recovery. “
The UK government faced the Conservatives’ biggest revolt since the start of the pandemic last month over the introduction of Plan B measures, with more than 100 Conservatives voting against.
The prime minister’s chief negotiator for Brexit, Lord Frost, has dramatically resigned in protest of the introduction of curbs. Yesterday, he criticized the ‘Covid Theater’ of masks and passes and called the lock-up a ‘serious mistake’.
The Times says Covid Passes are unlikely to be reinstated if the Department of Health says it is no longer needed.
Yesterday, Rutland and Melton, Alicia Kearns, urged the health minister to commit to “abandoning domestic certification as soon as possible.”